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Consequences of
population explosion, global warming
By Melaku Demissie March,03,2007
This time around there is a global awareness
that the world is facing the challenges of
population explosion and global warming that
could endanger almost all biological entities in
the world.
There is a consensus that the global warming and
population explosion is now a significant burden
to the environment where biological entities are
living.
Last week the Biological Society of Ethiopia, at
the opening of its 17th annual conference,
picked a central theme: "Population Explosion
and Global Warming: Local and Global Context."
During a two-day session many scholars presented
papers related to the topic.
Dr. Solomon Yirga, president of the Biological
Society of Ethiopia, said that the issue of
climate change is a headline in almost all kinds
of papers and forums, including in business and
politics around the world. The impact of global
warming can be manifested in various forms of
changes in the environment. "For example,
hundreds of thousands of our citizens have been
victims of the recent flood disaster in Ethiopia
and capital-intensive measures were taken to
alleviate the problems by the government and the
people," he said. Any change in the environment
would definitely have negative consequences like
droughts, floods and mosquitoes.
Today, he said, the global human population has
reached about 6.5 billion. The problem of rapid
population growth has assumed critical stage in
the least developed countries like Ethiopia.
"Unless we create a means to increase production
and productivity of the arable land through
basic and applied research results, that would
minimize effects of global warming and
population growth."
The president noted that experience over the
last couple of decades in Ethiopia has shows
that as human population increases, the carrying
capacity of the environment decreases. A high
population growth rate induces environmental
degradation, increase in demand for resources
and the rate at which these resources are
exploited.
In Ethiopia, the rate at which agricultural and
medical technologies are generated and
disseminated to the rural poor is not sufficient
enough. However, the research resulted that are
formulated in some way and disseminated to end
users clearly show that the technologies
generated by Ethiopian scientists could have
significant contribution towards the improvement
in the livelihoods of many of our people
Ethiopians. "Such successful results of pilot
projects in the area of agriculture, medicine
and education would motivate biological
scientists towards generating, evaluating and
promoting new research results that could change
the lives of our society through minimizing
effects of environmental factors," he added.
Fisseha Itanna, from the department of biology
at the Addis Ababa University (AAU), in his
presentation, said that Ethiopia is among the
most populated nations in Africa, ranking third
after Nigeria and Egypt. Recent annual
population growth rate in the country is
estimated to be 2.3 percent. It is well
understood that increase in population
definitely adds to the actively engaged in a
taskforce in a community. On the other hand,
with increase in population some problems start
to be manifested.
According to his observation, one salient
feature that commonly occurs is competition
among people for limited resources such as land,
water and even air. It is also understood, as
population increases, that traditional farming
and productions systems come under extreme
pressure to withstand the needs of the
additional mouths. Industrialization and
intensification of productive systems then
become the only option of nations to come out of
this problem.
Fisseha said that thousands after thousands
migrate into cities in search of better
opportunities from rural communities, thereby
accelerating the rate of urbanization in the
country. Ethiopia is not an exception to this
state of affairs and over the past decades such
has been the scenario in this country too. "The
major industries in the country are food
processing, beverages, textiles, leather,
chemicals, metals processing and cement. The
industrial production growth rate is estimated
at about 6.7 percent."
The scholar said that as processes of
industrialization and urbanization continue,
degradation of different forms appear in the
urban setting. Soil degradation through
industrial and urban development is described as
sealing, physical, chemical and biological
degradation. Sealing of soils occurs through the
construction of roads, industrial premises,
houses, sporting facilities, and the use of
soils as dumping grounds for different kinds of
refuse. Agricultural lands, which otherwise
could be used for cereal, fruit or vegetable
production, or serve as rangelands are converted
into roads and housing grounds through sealing.
Reduction of farmlands in urban and sub-urban
centers in this manner will consequently result
in commensurate crop losses. There are reports
that the water from the rivers crossing Addis
Ababa was much cleaner before several decades
and people even used to drink it. However, he
said, with the increase in urban population and
industrialization, the water has now become
contaminated with organic and inorganic
pollutants. With increase in population
degradation of the ecosystems takes place at a
more rapid rate. Soil degradation through urban
activities is mainly due to the enormous
consumption of air, water and other goods within
towns. Consumption of these products results in
the release of huge amounts of solid and liquid
wastes in the cities.
With regard to industrial pollution, he said
chemical and biological degradation are caused
by contamination with inorganic compounds such
as heavy metals, as well as organic compounds
such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. The
physico-chemical and biological degradation
resulting from industrial activities is more
concentrated and intense than that from urban
activities. These urban and industrial
activities in many cases irreversibly reduce the
multi-functionary soils. "Under natural
conditions, plants, animals and human beings are
adapted to the local natural metal
concentrations. Increased extraction of heavy
metals and use of raw materials and fossil
energy since the mid-18th century, however, are
now leading to global pollution through
atmospheric and water contamination." Population
explosion has also impact on the concentration
of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere; land use
changes could induce emissions of carbon into
the atmosphere with a resultant global warming,
he added.
Jason O. Onsembe from the United Nations Fund
for Population (UNFPA) in his presentation
indicated that Ethiopia has an estimated total
population of 79.3 million which is expected to
be 170.2 million by 2050. "High growth rate of
population affects the future size of
population, the age structure, labor force
supply, rural and urban distribution, regional
densities, all of which have implications on
development."
Regarding fertility rate, the presenter said
that the total fertility rate in Ethiopia is 5.9
which is high by any standard. Only 17 percent
of women favor having fewer than four children,
and women consider 5.3 children as the average
ideal family size. The Ethiopian government
considers high rate of population as a great
challenge to its objectives of meeting the
demands for social services and facilities,
particularly in such areas as health, education
employment, housing, environmental security and
general well-being.
He added that nine counties, one of which is
Ethiopia, are expected to account for half of
the world's projected population increase during
the period 2005-2007; global life expectancy is
expected to rise; and the net international
migration to more developed regions is projected
to reach 98 million during the period 2005-2050.
"In Ethiopia, high population growth will impede
all efforts aimed at reducing poverty, as the
recent analysis of the trends in economic
growth, poverty and population dynamics
indicate." He suggested that it now remains the
responsibility of policymakers to put in place
appropriate policies and strategies to change
the direction of population growth. In poor
counties, massive efforts are required to ensure
non-deterioration of social and economic
conditions.
Dr. Solomon said the greater understanding of
the factors that affect global warming and
population growth patterns can help the country
plan for the future; the national population
policy has been adopted together with several
important policy initiatives on natural resource
development and environmental protection. The
professional societies like Biological Societies
of Ethiopia are expected to contribute a lot
towards the development of ways and means of
reducing pressure. "Then the combined efforts
from various stakeholders will be synthesized to
produce packages that could be promoted to the
societies and policy makers for possible
interventions."
By Melaku Demissie
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